John McDonald

Blogging about politics, life, and the web

2010 Predictions

January 2nd, 2010

Just for fun, I’m going to speculate on some things that might happen in 2010

Another housing-led financial crash

Big losses on big loans will peak in early 2010, leading to a new round of asset devaluation and cash panics.  In many ways, government spending programs are already in place to deal with it when it happens, but some dramatic events on the trading floor may be necessary before the new government money starts being shipped off to the banks (again).

More Public and Tax Protests

Not only will the teabaggers refine their mix of nativism and new-found fiscal conservatism, and increasing number will actually refuse to pay taxes.  Fox-led teabag protests won’t be the only ones though, as you’ll probably also see the original tea partiers re-organize under a more explicitly libertarian banner.  Meanwhile, the progressive left has plenty of wars and corporate bailouts to complain about.  Added all up, there are a lot of angry groups out there despite the relative popularity of our president (compare him to Congress and he looks like he could be picked for homecoming king)

Travel and Trade will Suffer

One part paranoia and one part jealousy will continue to reduce the flow of people and goods across national borders.  Frustrated by onerous security measures, Americans and those who may have traveled to America may just stay home or find a new destination.  In the hope of protecting jobs, politicians will also blame labor in other nations for structural problems at home, so new taxes tarrifs & duties will be used to restrict foreign competition from domestic markets.

Comments

2 Comments

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  • Will says on: February 1, 2010 at 6:55 pm

     

    Ouch! I do hope you are wrong. Especially on the first one.

  • John McDonald says on: February 1, 2010 at 11:07 pm

     

    That’s pretty much the one I’m most confident about 🙁

    This graph is pretty outdated at this point (a LOT more ARMs have been signed for 2010-2012), but it shows how 2009 might be remembered as the calm before the storm, or at the very least like the eye of a hurricane.

    The default rate on ARMs could make subprime look like a safe investment 🙁

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